Johnson City, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

168
FXUS64 KMRX 141706 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
106 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 104 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms expected today, and a few of these storms may become
  strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
  showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern
U.S. At the surface, current analysis has a decaying stationary
front near the Georgia/Tennessee border. Some storms are currently
moving through southern Middle Tennessee. This activity will
continue to weaken as it moves into the Cumberland Plateau. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will start to increase early
this morning with better confidence in development in the late
morning and early afternoon hours. A weak shortwave will move
through the pattern in the early afternoon hours. At the surface, a
low centered near OH/PA will bring a cold front to our doorstep in
the afternoon hours and it will move through in the evening hours.

Showers and storms possibly getting off to an early start today,
complicates the forecast and decreases confidence in intensity and
timing. CAMs have not been doing well with the messy pattern and the
way summertime activity kicks out outflows that can trigger more
storms. Surface based instability will likely still be high for most
of the region this afternoon. Dew points will be in the low 70s,
CAPE up to 2k J/kg likely and steep low level lapse rates. With a
high sun angle this time of year, instability may be able to rebound
after skies clear behind early daytime activity. Most of the region
is in a marginal risk for severe storms which seems appropriate. The
East Tennessee and North Carolina mountains are on the edge of the
slight risk. The primary threat will be damaging winds. The freezing
level will be high around 15k feet making large hail difficult to
achieve.

The broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by
Monday. Rain chances will be very low Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
A stationary boundary will likely linger well to the south early
this week. With a deep trough in place, temperatures will be cooler
with highs mainly in the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances
increase on Thursday and Friday as a shortwave moves through
Thursday and finally a cold front passage on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Showers and storms are expected to traverse the area from west to
east through the evening ahead of a cold front. TEMPOs will
mention MVFR conditions with TS at all sites, and since confidence
of storms is higher at CHA, some gusty winds will be mentioned
there. Oernight, the front passes through and shifts winds to NW,
but remaining low level moisture may lead to MVFR cigs at TYS and
TRI until after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  82  63  83 /  40  10  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  80  60  82 /  80   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       62  80  58  81 /  60   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  78  55  80 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...DGS